Proyecto 2023 CLIMA 00037
Geographic variability in the effect of extreme heat events on mortality in Catalonia. The case of summer 2022.
Funding: Departament d’Acció Climàtica, Alimentació i Agenda Rural; Departament de Recerca i Universitats; Generalitat de Catalunya.
Principal Investigator: Maria Antònia Barceló (GRECS, UdG). 2024–2025.
Research team: Marc Saez and other researchers from GRECS, UdG; Departament d’Informàtica, Matemàtica Aplicada i Estadística, UdG; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), CSIC; Research and Innovation Unit of the Catalan Health Institute of Central Catalonia; Epidemiology and Girona Cancer Registry Unit.
Collaborators: Jaume I University; Social, Environmental and Health Observatory, Dipsalut.
Abstract
Excess mortality rates were observed worldwide in 2022, in many cases surpassed only by the excess mortality rates in 2020, a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to data from the Carlos III Health Institute's daily mortality surveillance system (MoMo), excess mortality in Spain in 2022 was the third highest since MoMo began being compiled, surpassed only by 2020 and 2015.
This excess mortality in 2022 has been attributed not only to the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic but also to extreme heat events, such as heat waves, which were exceptional during the summer of 2022. However, while between 31% and 37% of excess deaths in the summer of 2022 have been attributed to COVID-19, only 22.92% in Spain and 16.22% in Catalonia have been directly attributed to extreme heat.
We believe that other indirect effects of the pandemic are very likely. There could have been a displacement of deaths due to a combination of worsening chronic diseases as a consequence of COVID-19 and/or a lack of control of these conditions, as well as delayed or missed diagnoses and therefore poorer management of some chronic diseases.
The problem, both with the estimates of excess mortality and with their attribution to extreme heat or to the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19, is that they are based on models that may present biases and limitations, some of which arise from the design used (ecological designs with variables in the form of time series).
In this project, we aim to analyse the geographical variability of the effect of extreme heat episodes on mortality in Catalonia, particularly during the summer of 2022, and to estimate what proportion of the excess mortality can be attributed to extreme heat, to the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19, and to other causes, especially during 2022.
To achieve this, we will use mixed spatio-temporal models as a reference framework in combination with different types of data, including both ecological designs (municipalities and Basic Health Areas) and individual-level data, while controlling for the limitations and biases present in standard models.
Related Projects, Agreements and Contracts
Collaboration agreement between Dipsalut and the University of Girona to promote and develop joint work.
IPs: Marc Saez y Maria Antonia Barceló (GRECS, UdG). 21 de junio de 2021-21 de junio de 2025.
Service contract between the Andalusian School of Public Health and the University of Girona.
(DAS-EP) - Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Instituto de Salud Carlos III: PI22/00512)-’. IP: Marc Saez (GRECS, UdG), Maria Antònia Barceló (GRECS, UdG), Noviembre 2023-Noviembre 2024.